Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.5% vs Foligno 49.4% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 67.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 66.3%
Neutral zone
Foligno 52.7%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Backlund
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Backlund
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (712)
49.3% (215)
+2.0%
Power Play
52.9% (51)
57.1% (35)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (217)
41.9% (43)
+5.6%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Backlund is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (704).
Backlund shoots left. Foligno is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Backlund
Foligno
Home
49.0% (449)
47.5% (158)
Away
51.8% (531)
51.1% (135)
By Period
Backlund
Foligno
P1
46.9%
42.7%
P2
54.7%
51.4%
P3
49.4%
51.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
50.5%
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |