Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.7% vs 49.7%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Foligno 49.8% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 59.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 70.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Backlund
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Backlund
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
49.0% (261)
+1.1%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
57.1% (42)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
47.1% (51)
+0.7%
On power play, Foligno has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Backlund
Foligno
Home
48.1% (580)
48.9% (178)
Away
51.1% (653)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Backlund
Foligno
P1
45.1%
40.4%
P2
54.7%
55.8%
P3
49.0%
51.2%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |