Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backlund wins 43.8% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 47.6% vs Schmaltz 44.1% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 76.9%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 60.1%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 64.4%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 67.8%
32.2%
67.8%
Backlund
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Backlund
Schmaltz
Last 6: Backlund 1-5 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Backlund
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
3
Backlund
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (630)
41.7% (338)
+5.6%
Power Play
48.5% (66)
47.1% (34)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (82)
75.0% (4)
-28.7%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Backlund is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Backlund shoots left. Schmaltz is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Backlund
Schmaltz
Home
50.4% (347)
48.2% (166)
Away
44.8% (431)
38.1% (210)
By Period
Backlund
Schmaltz
P1
46.7%
42.1%
P2
44.9%
45.8%
P3
49.8%
41.4%
OT
58.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
46.7%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.3%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 10:31 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:41 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |