Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 67.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 95.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 88.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 90.1%
90.1%
9.9%
Backlund
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Backlund
Schmaltz
Last 9: Backlund 7-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Backlund
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
0
Backlund
Schmaltz
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
38.5% (309)
+12.5%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
53.2% (79)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
25.0% (12)
+17.3%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Backlund
Schmaltz
Home
51.2% (782)
38.0% (184)
Away
49.4% (765)
43.5% (216)
By Period
Backlund
Schmaltz
P1
51.5%
40.3%
P2
49.8%
39.9%
P3
49.9%
40.7%
OT
37.5%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 10:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:29 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:35 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:51 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 05:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |