Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.8% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 78.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Backlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Backlund
O'Reilly
Last 6: Backlund 5-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (1,083)
56.1% (690)
-4.2%
Power Play
51.7% (120)
64.6% (96)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (183)
45.9% (109)
-1.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Backlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Backlund
O'Reilly
Home
51.9% (673)
58.3% (408)
Away
49.9% (713)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Backlund
O'Reilly
P1
51.4%
57.7%
P2
50.5%
54.8%
P3
51.4%
55.2%
OT
35.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
50.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 03:08 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 01:15 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |