Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 81.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 59.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Backlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Backlund
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backlund 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Backlund
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
2
Backlund
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
5
Backlund
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
55.4% (826)
-5.3%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
57.9% (221)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
50.4% (129)
-2.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Backlund
O'Reilly
Home
48.1% (580)
55.8% (579)
Away
51.1% (653)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Backlund
O'Reilly
P1
45.1%
57.7%
P2
54.7%
54.8%
P3
49.0%
54.3%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:29 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |