Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 80.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Backlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Backlund
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backlund 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
6
Backlund
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
2
Backlund
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,032)
56.2% (983)
-5.8%
Power Play
52.3% (107)
55.5% (254)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (313)
52.0% (102)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Backlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Backlund
O'Reilly
Home
48.7% (749)
56.2% (697)
Away
48.1% (703)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Backlund
O'Reilly
P1
50.4%
54.5%
P2
50.1%
55.5%
P3
45.8%
57.1%
OT
30.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:33 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 07:15 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |