Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Backlund wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.1% vs Gagner 44.6% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 64.4%
Defensive zone
Gagner 53.4%
Neutral zone
Gagner 59.4%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Backlund
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Backlund
Gagner
Last 10: Backlund 4-6 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Backlund
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
2
3
Backlund
Gagner
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
2
Backlund
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (357)
42.1% (575)
+5.2%
Power Play
55.0% (40)
55.3% (123)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
34.9% (43)
-4.9%
On even strength, Backlund has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Backlund is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Backlund shoots left. Gagner is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Backlund
Gagner
Home
45.0% (211)
45.6% (375)
Away
50.5% (196)
42.1% (366)
By Period
Backlund
Gagner
P1
47.6%
40.1%
P2
53.0%
42.2%
P3
41.2%
48.2%
OT
100.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
52.0%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.7%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 03:14 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 17:30 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 05:46 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 3, 2013 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |