Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Backlund wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.0% vs Gagner 48.1% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 53.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 85.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Backlund
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Backlund
Gagner
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
2
3
Backlund
Gagner
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
0
Backlund
Gagner
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (1,070)
47.3% (395)
+3.8%
Power Play
50.5% (91)
50.0% (62)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (248)
50.0% (4)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Gagner has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Backlund is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (566).
Backlund shoots left. Gagner is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Backlund
Gagner
Home
49.3% (702)
49.4% (267)
Away
50.7% (708)
45.4% (194)
By Period
Backlund
Gagner
P1
46.3%
47.5%
P2
53.8%
48.5%
P3
49.9%
48.1%
OT
45.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
58.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.0%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2017 | 3 | 11:09 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 17, 2017 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 17, 2017 | 2 | 02:53 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 17, 2017 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 17, 2017 | 1 | 13:04 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 1 | 06:05 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |