Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Monahan 52.8% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 19-15 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 84.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 76.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 57.3%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Backlund
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
15
(34 meetings)
19
15
Backlund
Monahan
Last 10: Backlund 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
8
Backlund
Monahan
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
12
1
Backlund
Monahan
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
6
Backlund
Monahan
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
53.2% (823)
-3.1%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
55.3% (159)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
48.4% (95)
-0.6%
On even strength, Monahan has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Backlund
Monahan
Home
48.1% (580)
54.6% (529)
Away
51.1% (653)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Backlund
Monahan
P1
45.1%
49.0%
P2
54.7%
55.4%
P3
49.0%
53.6%
OT
46.2%
61.9%
Final 5 min
47.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 10:50 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:36 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 00:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:08 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |