Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 92.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 80.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Backlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
11
(24 meetings)
13
11
Backlund
Hertl
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
8
Backlund
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
11
0
Backlund
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Backlund
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
58.1% (823)
-8.0%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
56.2% (265)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
62.9% (35)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hertl
Home
48.1% (580)
59.7% (561)
Away
51.1% (653)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Backlund
Hertl
P1
45.1%
51.6%
P2
54.7%
63.8%
P3
49.0%
58.6%
OT
46.2%
28.6%
Final 5 min
47.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |