Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs Hertl 55.4% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 69.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 94.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 76.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Backlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
14
(20 meetings)
6
14
Backlund
Hertl
Last 9: Backlund 0-9 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
12
Backlund
Hertl
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,032)
54.1% (717)
-3.7%
Power Play
52.3% (107)
61.9% (210)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (313)
58.1% (31)
-17.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Backlund shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hertl
Home
48.7% (749)
58.1% (492)
Away
48.1% (703)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Backlund
Hertl
P1
50.4%
57.1%
P2
50.1%
54.0%
P3
45.8%
56.6%
OT
30.8%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 14:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 04:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |