Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-7.2%)
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 72.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Backlund
Hertl
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
57.0% (718)
-6.0%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
64.9% (188)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
44.2% (77)
-1.9%
On even strength, Hertl has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Backlund shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hertl
Home
51.2% (782)
59.2% (463)
Away
49.4% (765)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Backlund
Hertl
P1
51.5%
56.3%
P2
49.8%
55.4%
P3
49.9%
60.5%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%