Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.5% vs Hertl 52.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 50.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Backlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Backlund
Hertl
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Backlund
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (983)
51.6% (1,084)
-0.1%
Power Play
49.4% (87)
61.0% (246)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (159)
44.1% (136)
+1.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backlund is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (742).
Backlund shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hertl
Home
51.6% (653)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.3% (576)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Backlund
Hertl
P1
50.0%
55.4%
P2
49.8%
54.8%
P3
51.7%
48.9%
OT
53.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.7%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2022 | 2 | 16:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 1 | 13:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 12:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 10:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 19:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |