Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 47.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 70.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 71.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 69.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Backlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Backlund
Hertl
Last 8: Backlund 2-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Backlund
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Backlund
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Backlund
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (630)
54.7% (570)
-7.4%
Power Play
48.5% (66)
55.2% (143)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (82)
54.5% (77)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backlund is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Backlund shoots left. Hertl is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hertl
Home
50.4% (347)
56.2% (379)
Away
44.8% (431)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Backlund
Hertl
P1
46.7%
53.4%
P2
44.9%
52.7%
P3
49.8%
57.6%
OT
58.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2019 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 2 | 04:06 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 1 | 10:13 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |