Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Johnson 45.7% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 60.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 91.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 83.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 83.8%
83.8%
16.2%
Backlund
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Backlund
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
0
Backlund
Johnson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
44.6% (285)
+6.4%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
46.7% (60)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
16.7% (6)
+25.6%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +25.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Backlund
Johnson
Home
51.2% (782)
50.8% (179)
Away
49.4% (765)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Backlund
Johnson
P1
51.5%
41.3%
P2
49.8%
41.8%
P3
49.9%
49.6%
OT
37.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 15:15 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 11:58 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |