Mikael Backlund vs Zack Ostapchuk
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.7% vs 50.3%). Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Ostapchuk 50.2% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ostapchuk 56.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 72.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.0%
Result
Zack Ostapchuk favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Backlund
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Ostapchuk
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Ostapchuk
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Backlund
Ostapchuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
51.7% (300)
-1.6%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
33.3% (3)
+19.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
43.6% (55)
+4.2%
On power play, Backlund has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Ostapchuk is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Backlund
Ostapchuk
Home
48.1% (580)
49.1% (161)
Away
51.1% (653)
51.3% (197)
By Period
Backlund
Ostapchuk
P1
45.1%
50.0%
P2
54.7%
45.7%
P3
49.0%
55.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:55 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:43 | Offensive | Zack Ostapchuk |