Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Granlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Granlund 47.0% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 78.3%
Defensive zone
Hayes 69.5%
Neutral zone
Hayes 76.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Hayes
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hayes
Granlund
Last 5: Hayes 4-1 Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
0
1
Hayes
Granlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Granlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Granlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
46.7% (885)
+9.9%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
44.9% (69)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
49.0% (98)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Granlund is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Home / Away
Hayes
Granlund
Home
58.0% (405)
51.1% (495)
Away
56.1% (433)
42.9% (557)
By Period
Hayes
Granlund
P1
54.7%
49.9%
P2
55.7%
46.4%
P3
60.2%
44.3%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:47 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |