Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.2% vs 49.0%). Look for Granlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 48.4% vs Dowd 49.1% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Granlund 83.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.4%
Neutral zone
Granlund 53.2%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Granlund
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Granlund
Dowd
Last 8: Granlund 6-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
4
0
Granlund
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Granlund
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Granlund
1
0
Granlund
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (446)
51.7% (644)
-3.0%
Power Play
56.6% (99)
0.0% (2)
+56.6%
Penalty Kill
31.1% (61)
41.6% (221)
-10.5%
On power play, Granlund has a +56.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Granlund is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Granlund shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Granlund
Dowd
Home
53.3% (255)
48.6% (451)
Away
44.4% (351)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Granlund
Dowd
P1
51.3%
49.1%
P2
48.8%
47.3%
P3
44.4%
51.4%
OT
55.6%
30.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:30 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 12:56 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:52 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:40 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |