Scouting Report
Mikko Rantanen holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rantanen wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rantanen 53.2% vs Dowd 48.3% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rantanen 90.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 96.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Rantanen
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Rantanen
Dowd
Last 5: Rantanen 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rantanen
2
0
Rantanen
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Rantanen
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rantanen
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (346)
49.2% (778)
+2.5%
Power Play
58.5% (164)
58.3% (12)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.0% (234)
-44.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +44.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Rantanen is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Rantanen shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Rantanen
Dowd
Home
55.8% (258)
46.3% (492)
Away
51.8% (253)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Rantanen
Dowd
P1
50.0%
49.1%
P2
56.6%
48.2%
P3
54.3%
46.9%
OT
71.4%
71.4%
Final 5 min
45.4%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
53.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 14:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |