Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Rantanen wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rantanen 49.2% vs Lafferty 50.9% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rantanen 94.2%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 82.5%
Neutral zone
Rantanen 62.7%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Rantanen
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Rantanen
Lafferty
Last 7: Rantanen 1-6 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rantanen
Lafferty
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
5
Rantanen
Lafferty
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rantanen
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (334)
52.2% (366)
-1.3%
Power Play
43.7% (119)
60.0% (15)
-16.3%
On power play, Lafferty has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Rantanen is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Rantanen shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Rantanen
Lafferty
Home
49.4% (241)
53.1% (258)
Away
48.6% (212)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Rantanen
Lafferty
P1
47.1%
52.5%
P2
46.7%
49.7%
P3
51.9%
51.3%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
49.0%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 13:29 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:01 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:19 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |