Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Marner wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Dowd 49.1% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 88.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.9%
Neutral zone
Marner 52.1%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Marner
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
Dowd
Last 5: Marner 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Marner
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
51.7% (644)
-10.2%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
0.0% (2)
+40.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
41.6% (221)
-16.6%
On power play, Marner has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Marner is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Marner shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Marner
Dowd
Home
36.1% (158)
48.6% (451)
Away
46.1% (141)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Marner
Dowd
P1
41.6%
49.1%
P2
40.2%
47.3%
P3
40.5%
51.4%
Final 5 min
41.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |