Scouting Report
Mitchell Stephens holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stephens wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephens 52.4% vs Dowd 50.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephens 78.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.1%
Result
Mitchell Stephens favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Stephens
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stephens
Dowd
Last 7: Stephens 4-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephens
2
0
Stephens
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
3
Stephens
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephens
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (795)
52.6% (5,850)
+1.9%
Power Play
21.4% (14)
56.1% (164)
-34.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (178)
43.9% (1,600)
+3.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +34.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Stephens is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (279).
Stephens shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,600).
Home / Away
Stephens
Dowd
Home
54.1% (471)
52.1% (3,753)
Away
51.3% (517)
49.6% (3,862)
By Period
Stephens
Dowd
P1
53.6%
51.9%
P2
50.7%
50.7%
P3
54.3%
50.1%
OT
0.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephens
42.0%▼
52.5%
52.6%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:05 | Neutral | Mitchell Stephens |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Mitchell Stephens |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Mitchell Stephens |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 01:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 05:45 | Neutral | Mitchell Stephens |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |