Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Stephens wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephens 49.3% vs Dowd 53.3% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephens 50.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 65.5%
Result
Mitchell Stephens favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Stephens
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Stephens
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephens
1
0
Stephens
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephens
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (199)
55.4% (771)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
45.5% (165)
-2.9%
On even strength, Dowd has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Stephens is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Stephens shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Stephens
Dowd
Home
53.3% (122)
58.2% (462)
Away
45.0% (131)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Stephens
Dowd
P1
52.6%
55.6%
P2
48.0%
50.5%
P3
46.7%
53.9%
Final 5 min
49.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephens
42.0%▼
52.5%
49.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Mitchell Stephens |