Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Frost 55.7% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 94.7%
Defensive zone
Frost 70.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 88.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 82.3%
17.7%
82.3%
Bedard
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Bedard
Frost
Last 7: Bedard 5-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
54.9% (701)
-10.7%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
60.8% (166)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
100.0% (5)
-46.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Bedard
Frost
Home
50.7% (223)
56.0% (443)
Away
42.2% (270)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Bedard
Frost
P1
40.8%
58.9%
P2
48.2%
55.3%
P3
48.0%
54.0%
OT
57.1%
70.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |