Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 51.2%). Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Lazar wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.0% vs Frost 51.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 81.8%
Defensive zone
Lazar 78.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Lazar
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Lazar
Frost
Last 10: Lazar 4-6 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Lazar
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
4
Lazar
Frost
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (356)
50.3% (825)
+1.1%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
54.9% (204)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
50.0% (4)
-2.8%
On power play, Lazar has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Lazar shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Home / Away
Lazar
Frost
Home
49.7% (163)
50.7% (489)
Away
52.3% (237)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Lazar
Frost
P1
46.9%
53.6%
P2
53.3%
47.8%
P3
53.3%
52.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
51.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 12:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 06:45 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:49 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 13:27 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 08:05 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |