Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 51.1% vs Frost 55.7% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 65.7%
Defensive zone
Veleno 76.5%
Neutral zone
Veleno 57.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Veleno
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Veleno
Frost
Last 5: Veleno 2-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Veleno
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (272)
54.9% (701)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
100.0% (5)
-62.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +62.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Veleno is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Veleno shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Veleno
Frost
Home
49.6% (123)
56.0% (443)
Away
52.8% (178)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Veleno
Frost
P1
54.8%
58.9%
P2
49.2%
55.3%
P3
52.6%
54.0%
OT
25.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
60.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.5%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |