Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Veleno wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.4% vs Frost 51.1% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 86.1%
Defensive zone
Veleno 63.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 57.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Veleno
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Veleno
Frost
Last 5: Veleno 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Veleno
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
3
0
Veleno
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Veleno
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (420)
50.3% (825)
-3.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
54.9% (204)
+45.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
50.0% (4)
-25.0%
On power play, Veleno has a +45.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Veleno is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Veleno shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Veleno
Frost
Home
47.8% (201)
50.7% (489)
Away
46.1% (228)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Veleno
Frost
P1
48.8%
53.6%
P2
47.9%
47.8%
P3
44.2%
52.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
46.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 11:18 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:45 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |