Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Frost wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 75.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 94.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 64.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Frost
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Frost
Dowd
Last 10: Frost 9-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
7
0
Frost
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Frost
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Frost
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
55.2% (625)
-9.6%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
57.1% (7)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
38.2% (220)
+17.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Frost is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Frost shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Frost
Dowd
Home
47.0% (440)
53.7% (445)
Away
44.8% (511)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Frost
Dowd
P1
42.5%
48.8%
P2
47.9%
49.3%
P3
46.6%
54.0%
OT
66.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
48.5%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:45 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:36 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 18:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 03:51 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 10:32 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 04:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |