Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 51.1% vs Dowd 49.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 92.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 89.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 55.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Frost
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Frost
Dowd
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
7
0
Frost
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Frost
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (825)
52.2% (835)
-1.9%
Power Play
54.9% (204)
60.0% (10)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
44.0% (350)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Frost shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Frost
Dowd
Home
50.7% (489)
51.5% (619)
Away
51.7% (544)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Frost
Dowd
P1
53.6%
51.7%
P2
47.8%
51.6%
P3
52.0%
47.0%
OT
66.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
48.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
51.2%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:44 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |