Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Dowd 49.1% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 95.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 70.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 75.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 95.6%
95.6%
4.4%
Frost
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Frost
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
51.7% (644)
+3.2%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
0.0% (2)
+60.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
41.6% (221)
+58.4%
On power play, Frost has a +60.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Frost shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Frost
Dowd
Home
56.0% (443)
48.6% (451)
Away
56.6% (429)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Frost
Dowd
P1
58.9%
49.1%
P2
55.3%
47.3%
P3
54.0%
51.4%
OT
70.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |