Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Couturier 53.2% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 91.4%
Defensive zone
Couturier 68.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 66.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Frost
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Frost
Couturier
Last 7: Frost 5-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
1
Frost
Couturier
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Frost
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
53.4% (758)
+1.5%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
62.9% (70)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
50.7% (227)
+49.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +49.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Frost
Couturier
Home
56.0% (443)
50.7% (517)
Away
56.6% (429)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Frost
Couturier
P1
58.9%
55.2%
P2
55.3%
53.0%
P3
54.0%
53.3%
OT
70.0%
42.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |