Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Aho 53.8% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 62.1%
Defensive zone
Frost 60.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 59.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Frost
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Frost
Aho
Last 8: Frost 3-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Frost
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Frost
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
51.2% (785)
-2.6%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
63.8% (213)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
57.9% (57)
-32.9%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +32.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Frost shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Frost
Aho
Home
49.9% (399)
54.9% (548)
Away
49.1% (424)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Frost
Aho
P1
51.2%
52.8%
P2
53.9%
58.9%
P3
42.7%
50.6%
OT
40.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.5%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 19:22 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |