Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Aho 51.2% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 52.8%
Defensive zone
Aho 51.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Frost
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
22
(37 meetings)
15
22
Frost
Aho
Last 10: Frost 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
5
12
Frost
Aho
17 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Frost
Aho
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Frost
Aho
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
50.1% (6,619)
-0.7%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
58.9% (1,310)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
46.3% (464)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Frost
Aho
Home
51.0% (2,047)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Frost
Aho
P1
50.8%
51.1%
P2
51.1%
52.0%
P3
48.5%
50.7%
OT
66.7%
48.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 01:18 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 18:17 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 14:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 05:51 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 01:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |