Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Aho 50.0% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 56.5%
Defensive zone
Aho 59.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 60.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Frost
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Frost
Aho
Last 5: Frost 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Frost
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
49.9% (851)
+5.0%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
53.5% (144)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
43.3% (60)
+56.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +56.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Frost
Aho
Home
56.0% (443)
53.2% (554)
Away
56.6% (429)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Frost
Aho
P1
58.9%
49.1%
P2
55.3%
50.8%
P3
54.0%
49.7%
OT
70.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |