Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Nosek 46.9% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 88.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 52.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 62.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Frost
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Frost
Nosek
Last 7: Frost 4-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Frost
Nosek
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
48.5% (66)
+6.4%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
100.0% (1)
-39.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
29.6% (27)
+70.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +70.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Nosek is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
Frost
Nosek
Home
56.0% (443)
44.0% (25)
Away
56.6% (429)
43.5% (69)
By Period
Frost
Nosek
P1
58.9%
46.4%
P2
55.3%
34.2%
P3
54.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
51.4%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |