Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Nosek 53.6% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 77.7%
Defensive zone
Nosek 73.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Frost
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Frost
Nosek
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
1
Frost
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
3
Frost
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
5
6
Frost
Nosek
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
54.9% (2,674)
-5.5%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
44.7% (47)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
47.4% (424)
+5.4%
On power play, Frost has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Frost
Nosek
Home
51.0% (2,047)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Frost
Nosek
P1
50.8%
52.3%
P2
51.1%
54.0%
P3
48.5%
54.6%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:32 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 05:39 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 17:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:39 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 02:36 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 04:20 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:23 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |