Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 51.1% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 53.2%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 83.1%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 70.3%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Frost
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Frost
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Frost
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (825)
58.6% (597)
-8.3%
Power Play
54.9% (204)
57.9% (57)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
51.9% (52)
-1.9%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Frost shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Frost
Karlsson
Home
50.7% (489)
59.6% (344)
Away
51.7% (544)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Frost
Karlsson
P1
53.6%
53.1%
P2
47.8%
62.1%
P3
52.0%
60.1%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.1%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:23 | Offensive | William Karlsson |