Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 51.1% vs Ostapchuk 49.0% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 86.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 54.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 72.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Frost
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Frost
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
3
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (825)
48.3% (271)
+2.0%
Power Play
54.9% (204)
25.0% (4)
+29.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
71.4% (7)
-21.4%
On power play, Frost has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Frost shoots left. Ostapchuk is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Frost
Ostapchuk
Home
50.7% (489)
49.3% (140)
Away
51.7% (544)
47.9% (142)
By Period
Frost
Ostapchuk
P1
53.6%
49.1%
P2
47.8%
48.9%
P3
52.0%
47.5%
Final 5 min
48.1%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |