Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Ostapchuk 50.2% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 81.9%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 76.6%
Neutral zone
Ostapchuk 58.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
Frost
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
51.7% (300)
+3.2%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
33.3% (3)
+27.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
43.6% (55)
+56.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +56.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Ostapchuk is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Frost
Ostapchuk
Home
56.0% (443)
49.1% (161)
Away
56.6% (429)
51.3% (197)
By Period
Frost
Ostapchuk
P1
58.9%
50.0%
P2
55.3%
45.7%
P3
54.0%
55.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |