Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 54.9% vs Ostapchuk 52.4% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 75.5%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 74.0%
Neutral zone
Ostapchuk 56.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Frost
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (521)
55.6% (232)
-1.5%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
0.0% (2)
+59.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
33.3% (21)
+66.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Frost is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (458).
Frost shoots left. Ostapchuk is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Frost
Ostapchuk
Home
57.2% (339)
50.0% (106)
Away
54.0% (328)
55.7% (149)
By Period
Frost
Ostapchuk
P1
58.2%
51.1%
P2
55.6%
50.6%
P3
52.9%
58.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Ostapchuk
62.0%▲
53.0%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |