Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Ostapchuk 48.4% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 85.7%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 53.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 69.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Frost
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Frost
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Ostapchuk
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
3
2
Frost
Ostapchuk
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
48.5% (612)
+0.9%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
28.6% (7)
+26.9%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
46.8% (62)
+6.0%
On power play, Frost has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Ostapchuk is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (470).
Home / Away
Frost
Ostapchuk
Home
51.0% (2,047)
48.6% (319)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
47.8% (362)
By Period
Frost
Ostapchuk
P1
50.8%
48.2%
P2
51.1%
45.8%
P3
48.5%
50.5%
Final 5 min
48.7%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |