Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 49.1%). Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.9% vs Ostapchuk 49.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 79.7%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 59.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 54.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Frost
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Frost
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Ostapchuk
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
3
2
Frost
Ostapchuk
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (3,418)
49.8% (544)
-0.8%
Power Play
55.0% (600)
16.7% (6)
+38.3%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
42.9% (28)
+9.9%
On power play, Frost has a +38.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Frost is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,654).
Frost shoots left. Ostapchuk is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (412).
Home / Away
Frost
Ostapchuk
Home
50.9% (1,943)
48.9% (264)
Away
49.0% (2,111)
49.4% (314)
By Period
Frost
Ostapchuk
P1
50.3%
48.4%
P2
51.0%
48.1%
P3
48.0%
51.1%
Final 5 min
48.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.9%
Ostapchuk
62.0%▲
53.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |