Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.9% vs MacKinnon 42.6% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 84.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 70.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 79.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Stepan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Stepan
MacKinnon
Last 10: Stepan 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (1,210)
40.7% (953)
+6.3%
Power Play
51.7% (232)
51.4% (148)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (108)
36.4% (55)
+10.8%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stepan is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Stepan shoots right. MacKinnon is 38.4% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Stepan
MacKinnon
Home
48.2% (761)
42.1% (617)
Away
47.3% (789)
41.7% (540)
By Period
Stepan
MacKinnon
P1
46.3%
43.4%
P2
50.4%
40.9%
P3
46.3%
40.8%
OT
55.2%
55.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
41.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2018 | 2 | 15:09 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 2 | 08:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 2 | 08:51 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 3 | 11:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 1 | 08:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 1 | 08:23 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 2 | 01:30 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 1 | 17:26 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |