Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 50.7% vs Foligno 49.4% (+1.7%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.5%
Defensive zone
Foligno 74.8%
Neutral zone
Foligno 53.4%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
MacKinnon
Foligno
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
49.3% (215)
-0.2%
Power Play
65.4% (130)
57.1% (35)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
41.9% (43)
-7.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
MacKinnon shoots right. Foligno is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (130).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Foligno
Home
52.6% (489)
47.5% (158)
Away
49.1% (495)
51.1% (135)
By Period
MacKinnon
Foligno
P1
50.3%
42.7%
P2
52.6%
51.4%
P3
49.2%
51.9%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
49.1%