Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Foligno 52.0% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 80.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 64.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
MacKinnon
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
MacKinnon
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
MacKinnon
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
MacKinnon
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
53.4% (249)
-7.9%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
53.2% (154)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
40.6% (32)
-0.6%
On even strength, Foligno has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Foligno is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Foligno
Home
47.8% (670)
57.3% (225)
Away
44.6% (644)
47.1% (210)
By Period
MacKinnon
Foligno
P1
45.3%
53.0%
P2
48.5%
51.8%
P3
45.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
47.4%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 09:28 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |