Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Foligno 49.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 77.3%
Defensive zone
Foligno 67.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
MacKinnon
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
MacKinnon
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
49.0% (261)
+1.0%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
57.1% (42)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
47.1% (51)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Foligno is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Foligno
Home
53.3% (591)
48.9% (178)
Away
49.6% (581)
50.6% (176)
By Period
MacKinnon
Foligno
P1
49.9%
40.4%
P2
53.2%
55.8%
P3
50.8%
51.2%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.1%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |