Scouting Report
Oskar Bäck holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bäck on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Bäck 51.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 77.4%
Defensive zone
Bäck 65.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.4%
Result
Oskar Bäck favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
MacKinnon
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
MacKinnon
Bäck
Last 6: MacKinnon 1-5 Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bäck
1
4
MacKinnon
Bäck
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bäck
0
1
MacKinnon
Bäck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
55.9% (143)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
33.3% (30)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bäck is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bäck
Home
50.9% (740)
47.6% (82)
Away
49.0% (774)
56.0% (91)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bäck
P1
50.9%
54.3%
P2
51.8%
48.1%
P3
47.1%
56.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:32 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |