Scouting Report
Oskar Bäck holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bäck on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Bäck 50.5% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 79.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 62.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
MacKinnon
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
MacKinnon
Bäck
Last 6: MacKinnon 1-5 Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bäck
1
4
MacKinnon
Bäck
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bäck
0
1
MacKinnon
Bäck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
54.8% (186)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
31.7% (41)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bäck is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (107).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bäck
Home
49.7% (6,444)
52.4% (103)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
49.2% (124)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bäck
P1
47.4%
51.5%
P2
46.6%
50.0%
P3
46.1%
50.8%
Final 5 min
49.0%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:32 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |