Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Bäck shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Bäck 48.7% (+5.2%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.0%
Defensive zone
Bäck 63.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
MacKinnon
Bäck
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
51.2% (43)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
27.3% (11)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bäck is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (27).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bäck
Home
53.3% (591)
71.4% (21)
Away
49.6% (581)
30.3% (33)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bäck
P1
49.9%
45.5%
P2
53.2%
56.5%
P3
50.8%
22.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
46.3%