Nathan MacKinnon vs Phillip Danault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Phillip Danault holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Danault shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Danault 54.8% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Danault leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.3%
Defensive zone
Danault 81.4%
Neutral zone
Danault 57.0%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
MacKinnon
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
MacKinnon
Danault
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Danault
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
0
2
MacKinnon
Danault
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Danault
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
56.5% (711)
-6.5%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
46.0% (50)
+18.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
51.7% (116)
-17.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Danault is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Danault
Home
53.3% (591)
57.0% (379)
Away
49.6% (581)
54.0% (498)
By Period
MacKinnon
Danault
P1
49.9%
55.8%
P2
53.2%
55.3%
P3
50.8%
54.8%
OT
66.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:27 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |