Nathan MacKinnon vs Phillip Danault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Phillip Danault holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 50.7% vs Danault 54.4% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Danault leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 65.1%
Defensive zone
Danault 81.0%
Neutral zone
Danault 57.8%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
MacKinnon
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
MacKinnon
Danault
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Danault
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
0
2
MacKinnon
Danault
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Danault
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
56.7% (561)
-7.6%
Power Play
65.4% (130)
43.9% (41)
+21.5%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
50.0% (94)
-15.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
MacKinnon shoots right. Danault is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (244).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Danault
Home
52.6% (489)
58.4% (279)
Away
49.1% (495)
52.8% (417)
By Period
MacKinnon
Danault
P1
50.3%
55.5%
P2
52.6%
55.7%
P3
49.2%
54.5%
OT
62.5%
46.2%
Final 5 min
55.6%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Danault
62.0%▲
58.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:27 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |