Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Donato 46.0% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 53.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 65.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.5%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
MacKinnon
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
MacKinnon
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
MacKinnon
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
44.4% (180)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
43.2% (37)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
40.0% (5)
+0.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Donato is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Donato
Home
47.8% (670)
45.4% (97)
Away
44.6% (644)
43.2% (125)
By Period
MacKinnon
Donato
P1
45.3%
36.2%
P2
48.5%
48.6%
P3
45.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
47.4%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.2%
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |