Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Donato 45.4% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 69.5%
Defensive zone
Donato 65.0%
Neutral zone
Donato 67.9%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
MacKinnon
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
MacKinnon
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
MacKinnon
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
MacKinnon
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
43.5% (400)
+5.7%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
48.7% (119)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
33.3% (6)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Donato
Home
50.9% (740)
50.2% (279)
Away
49.0% (774)
38.2% (246)
By Period
MacKinnon
Donato
P1
50.9%
44.6%
P2
51.8%
46.6%
P3
47.1%
42.0%
OT
58.8%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.9%
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:01 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |